This is one of the first questions potential travelers to Peru ask who want to hike the Inca Trail. Although there are a number of considerations as to when one should hike from the Sacred Valley to Machu Picchu, two are most important: weather and the availability of trail passes.

Weather is never a sure thing but the smart traveler at least looks at the climate of the area based on past years’ weather. Technical data is available for Cusco, the nearest city to the start of the Inca Trail, which sits at almost 10,700 feet in elevation.

Average High Temperature (Fahrenheit)

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
64 64 65 66 67 66 66 66 67 68 67 66

Average Low Temperature (Fahrenheit)

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
45 46 46 43 39 35 34 37 41 44 45 45

Average Precipitation (inches)

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
5.9 4.5 3.8 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.7 4.3

You can learn a few things from this data. First, the average high temperature barely changes from month to month. This is true because Cuzco is only 10 degrees south of the equator (as compared to, say, Seattle which is 47 degrees north of the equator).

The average overnight low temperature does change a bit more, ranging from 35 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit. Since the high point on the Inca Trail is about 3,000 feet higher than Cusco, temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees colder at that point and perhaps 10 degrees colder at your highest camp. So temperatures at night in the months of June, July, and August are low and you need to be prepared.

Still, what stands out in the above chart and what is by far the most important is the probability of rain in the area. Cuzco and the area of the Inca Trail has one main dry season and one main rainy season. The dry season runs from about mid-April through October. Travel in May, June, July, or August and you are unlikely to see any precipitation. However, the rains start in October and by December the Inca Trail is closed for the rainy months due to the persistent downpours and washed out trails.

Unfortunately, the dry season in Peru coincides with the tourist season in North America and Europe, meaning everyone and his brother wants to hike the Inca Trail in July and August. Cuzco and Machu Picchu are simply more crowded in the northern hemisphere’s summer. Can you still hike then? Definitely. The nice thing is the Peruvian government limits trail passes so the trail itself is now never over-crowded.

The negative thing is that, well, the Peruvian government limits trail passes and so you have to plan well in advance to secure a pass during high season.

As of today, February 16th, these are the following number of days when any trail passes are available in that month:

April – 2
May – 0
June – 18
July – 31
August – 31

So you can see during the shoulder months of April and May, trail passes are almost sold out (they likely will be by the time you read this). Passes are disappearing for June and will likely be gone for July and August by mid-March.

So when is the best time to hike the Inca Trail? First off, choose April through October for the best weather. Second, if you are limited to certain months of vacation, perhaps due to school schedules, the weather is excellent in July and August – just be prepared for cold nights and make sure to buy your trail passes six months in advance to secure your preferred date.

Finally, if you have flexibility in your schedule, consider hiking during the shoulder seasons of April, May, September, and October when nighttime temperatures are not as low, trail passes are not as much in demand, and fewer tourists are swarming the ruins of Machu Picchu and the other Incan sites.